The hottest corn harvester market suddenly soared,

2022-08-13
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The sudden surge in the corn harvester market sleeps and wakes up at the end of the third year

the "empty window" effect brought by market transformation is comprehensively and profoundly affecting this year's agricultural machinery market, and agricultural machinery enterprises are experiencing a painful period that has not been seen for many years. In the first half of the year, the tractor market entered the "ice age", the grain combine harvester market fell sharply, the transplanter market fell sharply, and the growth of the dryer Market stopped abruptly... On the contrary, the corn harvester market grew against the trend, and even in the off-season of the first half of the year, it still showed an amazing growth rate. Under the combined action of various positive factors, the comprehensive corn harvester market is expected to achieve a major reversal throughout the year, sweeping away the haze that has enveloped the corn harvester market for three years and getting out of the dilemma of continuous decline

hit the bottom and rebounded sharply.

after a continuous decline from 2015 to 2017, the corn harvester market is expected to come out of the trough and rebound strongly this year. The market performance of the first half of this year's corn harvester can be seen from the characteristics of stable transmission, low noise, high speed accuracy, wide speed regulation range, long service life and so on. Market research shows that by the end of June, China had sold 7136 corn harvesters, up 32.64% from the same period last year

in the first half of the year, the market demand composition of corn harvesters was quietly changing. On the one hand, from the year-on-year growth rate, the models at both ends increased significantly year-on-year. The market survey showed that the two rows and five rows increased by 64.58% and 52.81% year-on-year respectively, but the proportion was relatively small, 18.04% and 3.81% respectively, up 3.5 and 0.5 percentage points respectively compared with the same period last year. On the other hand, from the perspective of market share, focus on intermediate models. Although the year-on-year growth rate of the 3-row and 4-row machines, as intermediate models, was inferior to that of the 2-row and 5-Row models, with 17.58% and 31.35% respectively; However, the proportion reached 27.37% and 50.78%, especially the 4-line model, accounting for half of the country. Since the main market has not yet started in the first half of the year, the composition of market demand in the first half of the year is not convincing. With the arrival of the shipment peak in the second half of the year, we expect that the 3-line and 4-line models will catch up, especially the 4-line model, which may become the main model in the market this year

the substantial growth of the corn harvester market this year is not caused by a single factor, but the result of the interaction of multiple factors. The following factors play a very important role in market growth

first, rigid demand is still the main driving force of the market. Among the three major grain crops, the machine harvest level of China's corn harvesters is still the lowest, only 66.68% in 2016, which is not only lower than the machine harvest level of wheat and rice, but also a certain gap with the machine tillage and machine sowing level of corn, which determines that the endogenous force of the corn harvester market is still relatively strong

second, the price of corn rebounded. After experiencing the "simultaneous increase of three quantities" of domestic corn in 2015 (i.e. import volume, purchase volume and inventory, and promoting the transformation and upgrading of many industries), the purchase price of temporary storage of corn was reduced to 1 yuan 2 for the first time The quality of the jaws was poor/Jin, and then the price of corn fell all the way down, falling to 0.25 yuan/Jin as low as possible. In 2017, the price began to recover strongly, and in 2018, the price returned to 1 yuan/Jin. Especially since November 2017, domestic corn futures have increased significantly, and it is expected that corn prices are expected to maintain a strong upward trend in 2018. It is expected that the corn planting area will increase steadily this year, which will have a positive impact on the corn harvester market

third, the corn harvester market has fallen to the bottom after experiencing "three consecutive falls". The market momentum has reached a certain height, and the rebound at the bottom has become a strong driving force to push up the market this year

fourth, as the largest grain crop in China, the annual output of corn is about 230 million tons, of which forage accounts for 41%, inventory is as high as 36%, and consumption accounts for only 4%. Since last year, China's animal husbandry has entered a period of rapid development. With the rapid growth of feed demand, the demand for corn has increased, providing a good development environment for the corn harvester market

fifth, update and pull. As another driving force of the market - renewal, it may be launched this year. After three consecutive years of downturn in the corn harvester market, the market will enter the peak period of renewal this year, and the driving force of the market cannot be underestimated

sixth, subsidies. In the first half of the year, the progress of agricultural machinery subsidies was slow, and the amount of agricultural machinery subsidies in the second half of the year was sufficient, providing a solid subsidy foundation for peak season sales

fierce competition and declining concentration

the corn harvester market is one of the most competitive markets in the traditional market. With the recovery of the market this year, the competition has become more intense. The market survey showed that by the end of June, the sales of the top six brands had shown the characteristics of "four increases and two decreases" year-on-year, with a cumulative sales of 4503 units, an increase of 16.15% year-on-year; Accounting for 63.1%, down 8.96 percentage points from the same period last year. As the peak season of corn harvester market is mainly concentrated in August and September in the second half of the year, some major brands have not yet made efforts, and the key to market competition depends on the second half of the year

among the six brands leading the first half, juming, Yinghu, Luoyang Ferguson and Dafeng showed different degrees of growth, with year-on-year growth rates reaching double digits, and Luoyang Ferguson's growth rate reached three digits. At the same time, Shandong Shifeng and Lovol heavy industries have experienced large-scale landslides

the competition in the corn harvester market focuses on four key factors: brand, service, price and operation efficiency. The growth of some brands is largely due to stable product quality, efficient operation efficiency and thoughtful after-sales service, so that the investors of corn harvesters can get satisfactory income in the limited operation period of each year

the environment tends to be more favorable to support market growth

in August, September and October of the second half of the year, the corn harvester market will enter the peak sales mode. Throughout the market trend of this year's corn harvester, the market will become the inevitable development of the market. This judgment can be supported by the many positive factors and its multiple supporting forces faced by this year's corn harvester market

support 1: corn demand surged. From the perspective of corn import and export in recent years, the export amount has fallen precipitously this year after experiencing a substantial increase last year; In contrast, imports soared sharply in the first five months of this year after two consecutive years of decline. This change suggests that after the inventory has been effectively controlled, the market demand has rebounded strongly, which is particularly beneficial to the corn harvester market this year

support 2: three arrows fired at the same time, with strong positive factors in the corn harvester market

first, the demand for feed breeding ushered in a development opportunity, highlighting signs of recovery. This sign can be seen from the rapid year-on-year growth of feed output last year and the rapid growth of green feed harvester market (with a year-on-year increase of more than 28%). Corn is the main feed source, and 41% of corn is used as feed, which provides a strong driving force for the upward price of corn

secondly, the price of corn will also recover due to the use of ethanol, and the demand for fuel ethanol will significantly drive corn consumption. According to the current 30% yield of corn ethanol production, 10million tons of fuel ethanol will drive 30million tons of corn demand, accounting for about 15% of China's current corn output

finally, new changes have taken place in the adjustment of planting structure in the "sickle Bay" region. High activity sans have been added to the abs+gf system. After two consecutive years of sharp reduction in corn planting area, the pace of reduction has slowed down. According to market research, due to the rise in corn prices and the decline in rice prices this year, the planting area of corn has been expanded in the eastern region of Heilongjiang

support 3: rigid demand is still relatively strong. As the first of the three major grain crops, corn has a large market capacity, but the machine harvest level is low. Statistics show that in 2016, China's corn machine harvest level was 66.68%, reaching about 68% in 2017. It belongs to the "depression" of the three major grain crop machine harvest levels. The relatively strong market rigidity brings hope for the growth of this year's corn harvester market

support 4: market cyclical rise. After experiencing "three consecutive falls", the corn harvester market has formed a market "depression". If the "three consecutive falls" of the corn harvester market in the past three years are regarded as market momentum, then the release of market energy this year is inevitable. Therefore, it is not difficult for us to see that this year's corn harvester market may become a reality under the combined effect of rigid demand and renewal demand. From the analysis of market renewal demand, China's corn harvester renewal cycle is about 4 years, and 2018 will enter the peak period of renewal. It provides the necessary impetus for the market to turn around

support 5: regional market pull. In 2017, the mainstream areas of Huang Huai Hai and Northern corn harvesters fell across the board. Driven by multiple positive factors such as agricultural machinery subsidies and market updates, these mainstream areas will usher in development opportunities. At the same time, many enterprises began to pay attention to the corn harvester market in the southwest hilly region. The new market will inject strong impetus into the new start-up of the corn harvester market this year and even in the future

support 6: drive of new products. The grain machine market has been brewing for many years, and its products are reaching maturity; The research and development of edible corn harvesters has also made great progress. These new products may provide new growth points for this year's corn harvester market from different aspects and bring good development opportunities

in addition, the first half of the year was originally the off-season of the corn harvester market, but it rose significantly year-on-year. In the second half of the year, with the arrival of the peak season, the market may further hit the high point. At the same time, the negative factors this year can not be ignored, such as the decline in investment income, the decline in purchasing power, demand transformation, the slow promotion of the grain machine market, land circulation and scale are facing some difficulties, and so on

based on the analysis of the above factors, we predict that this year's corn harvester market may usher in a turnaround, realize a magnificent turn in market demand, and the annual sales volume is expected to reach 4 Between 80000 units, with a year-on-year increase of more than 20%. The corn harvester market is about to enter the peak sales mode, and this year's corn harvester market is worth looking forward to

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