The hottest core technology is the key to competit

2022-08-19
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Core technology is the key to competition. The rapid growth of electronic information industry is an extravagant demand

since 2015, China's consumer electronic information manufacturing industry has entered a new stage of medium growth, with the growth rate dropping from more than 10% to about 8.5%, and maintaining a stable trend. The export environment has not improved, and it still fluctuates around zero growth. At present, the global electronic information consumption market is still not prosperous. The growth rate of China's electronic information manufacturing industry is expected to maintain about 8%, and the export growth rate is expected to achieve positive growth, but there is still great uncertainty

the industrial growth rate may decrease

compared with the growth rate range of 10% - 10.5% in 2013 and 2014, the industrial growth rate in 2015 decreased significantly by about 2 percentage points. This is consistent with the general trend of the weakening development of the global information technology industry. According to Gartner's prediction released in October 2015, global IT expenditure in 2015 will be 3.5% lower than that in 2014; It is expected that the growth of the smart market will continue to stagnate in 2016, and the PC and tablet market will continue to weaken due to the creep and lag characteristics of sensors. Therefore, it is expected that the growth rate of China's electronic information manufacturing industry will remain at about 8% in 2016, and may be lower than 8% in some time periods

market saturation and the lack of disruptive innovation have led to a continuous decline in the growth rate of mature fields such as communication equipment, resulting in a significant decline in the overall growth rate of the electronic information manufacturing industry. Especially in the context of the shrinking global market, although the proportion of domestic brands in the home audio-visual, computer, communication equipment and other markets continues to increase, the growth pressure continues to increase

in 2016, the development of 4G began to enter a stable stage. It is difficult to reverse and improve the growth rate of the intelligent terminal industry represented by smart and tablet computers, which may gradually drop from more than 20% in the previous two years to about 10%, and the leading role of the industry is significantly weakened. Due to the continuous price war, the computer and home audio-visual markets are expected to maintain a low growth rate of less than 5%

the output growth rate of major products of the electronic information industry in 2015 has changed significantly compared with 2014. It is expected that it will be difficult to see rapid growth in 2016. The two areas that may drive industrial growth are integrated circuits and color TV sets

lack of boosting factors

since 2014, the growth of China's import and export of information products has changed from positive to negative, and the growth rate of product import and export has been hovering at a low level, which makes the situation more serious. Looking forward to 2016, the market demand of the global electronic information manufacturing industry is still sluggish, and it is unlikely that the import and export, export and import amount will return to a positive growth state. As one of the troika, exports have been growing at a low level between positive and negative, and the negative impact on the export-oriented electronic information industry will continue to ferment

the growth rate of fixed asset investment remained high, the new fixed asset investment increased steadily, and the number of new projects continued to increase. From the following reasons for the impact of CIMC: from the perspective of the layout of its 10% circuit and flat panel display production lines, there will still be large-scale investment in 2016, which is expected to continue to drive the steady and rapid growth of industrial investment

in the field of digital audio-visual, display technology continues to diversify, and Chinese brands are expected to achieve "overtaking in corners". Display technology is ushering in a new explosion period, and major breakthroughs have been made in uled, quantum dots, laser TV, curved surface completion experiments, automatic shutdown function TV, ultra-thin TV from the government level and other technologies. At the same time, the competition in the industry has intensified. Five enterprises including Haier and popular announced the joint layout of the smart TV field. Changhong, kangdexin and Oriental Vision jointly announced to promote the development of the naked eye 3D industry. Nielsen Union, Youpeng Pule, mango TV and Guangdong said they would further improve the advertising standards of smart TV. With the continuous exploration of smart TV from terminals, services to business models, Each link of the industrial chain becomes an important path to seek breakthroughs

in the field of communication equipment, the rapid growth of the market scale of communication equipment products is unsustainable, and the growth of the communication equipment industry will change from investment driven by technological progress to information service and application innovation driven. The research and development and commercial planning of 5g technology will promote the technological and product innovation of the communication equipment industry. Broadband, mobility, ubiquity and convergence will be the development trend of networks. Technologies such as all-round ultra wideband access, new generation mobile technology, smart optical transmission network and new IP network will become the main driving points of industrial innovation. In the field of computers and intelligent terminals, under the impact of mobile Internet devices such as tablet computers, smart and wearable devices, the global PC market continues to be depressed. The demand of the commercial market is relatively stable, but it is difficult to have a substantial growth, and the PC industry is still lack of boosting factors

in terms of servers, the domestic industrial ecosystem with open power processors as the core will take shape, and power chip servers with self-defined capabilities will be launched and enter the domestic market. The further implementation of cloud computing will make the fusion architecture and integrated system of servers develop rapidly, and the high-end customized server market will become the focus of manufacturers. In the field of integrated circuits, the growth of global chip sales is expected to be only 2.2% in 2015 and about 1.3% in 2016, mainly due to the lack of driving force in the traditional market. For example, the sales of notebook computers, ultrabooks and other computer products will drop from 6.2% to 1.9%; The annual growth rate of sales volume may be only 0.7%. In terms of memory, DRAM will be oversupplied in the second half of 2016 due to the new production capacity of Samsung and Hynix. Therefore, it is difficult for China's IC growth to reverse the trend

the new display field, new production capacity, technology, market application and other aspects have maintained a good trend. From the perspective of technological development, backbone enterprises in Chinese Mainland have increased investment in new technologies such as high-resolution, wide viewing angle, low power consumption, narrow borders, curved surfaces and so on. The introduction and application of new technologies have been accelerated. The production of several high-generation lines has promoted the overall high-speed growth of the industry, the new investment has stimulated the development of global industries, and foreign-funded supporting enterprises have settled in Chinese Mainland, Promote the supporting development of upstream materials and components of China's new display industry

strengthen the core foundation

CCID think tank believes that from abroad, in 2016, due to the uncertainty of the follow-up impact of the US interest rate hike, quantitative easing and monetary exit policies, the pressure on government debt in the euro area has not been lifted, coupled with significant fluctuations and declines in emerging market economies, the global economic boom is still depressed. The growth rate of the global electronic information industry has declined significantly, and the global IT expenditure will further decline, making China's export situation still severe. Maintaining medium and high-speed economic growth has become the core task of the 13th Five Year Plan period. In this context, China's electronic information manufacturing industry needs to clarify the new momentum and new space for future development to overcome the adverse effects of current market changes

for a long time, China's information industry has a weak ability in the basic field, which is incompatible with the industrial scale. The overall development presents an "inverted triangle" shape with strong application and weak foundation. China still lags behind the international advanced level in key products such as IGBT, inductors and sensors, and is also lagging behind in areas such as high-precision sensors, which are urgently needed in the development of emerging fields such as the IOT, while integrated circuits, key flat panel display equipment, as well as core special-purpose equipment such as automatic chip mounter and film tape casting machine have long relied on imports. In the process of building an independent and innovative information industry in China, the core basic industry is still a gap that needs to be broken through, which needs to be paid continued attention

with the integration and innovation among industries, the influence and transformation of software on hardware has become increasingly prominent, and has become a key factor determining industrial competition. This determines that the competition in the electronic information manufacturing industry is not limited to the manufacturing industry. We need to pay attention to the competition in basic parts, core devices, software, machine assembly, network adaptation, application and other aspects. Among them, leading enterprises have become important leaders in the industry competition. For example, the integrity of Samsung in the industrial chain and the monopoly of some links, such as Apple's advantages in the development and application promotion of closed operating systems, are important gaps that leading enterprises must face in moving forward to international competition. Chinese enterprises should continue to accelerate the transformation, pay attention to the competitive development path of the design industrial chain and ecosystem, and further enhance the international voice

(Research Group for situation analysis of electronic information manufacturing industry of CCID think tank of the Ministry of industry and information technology)

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