The hottest corn harvester hit the bottom and rebo

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At present, for the agricultural machinery industry, corn harvesters are undoubtedly one of the products that have attracted much attention in this time stage in the second half of the year. Looking back, since 2015, the corn harvester market has experienced a continuous decline in sales, and last year it reached a new low since 2012, which is really surprising

at the beginning of the year, the industry placed a relatively optimistic judgment on the market trend of corn harvesters. Where will the subsequent market go? Let's review and review some points again, which may be more enlightening

last year, sales fell sharply, hitting a six-year low

this year, many factors may promote the bottom climb

according to incomplete industry statistics, in 2017, the domestic corn harvester market sales volume was around 40000 units, a decrease of more than 30%. What is more shocking is that the backbone corn harvester manufacturing enterprise produced 20000 self-propelled corn harvesters, and digested the original inventory for most of the year, which shows the difficulty of enterprise operation

looking at the statistics of the changes in the sales volume of the corn harvester market in the past 10 years from 2009 to now, before 2014 (specifically, from the implementation of the subsidy policy in 2004 to 2014), the corn harvester experienced a sharp increase year by year. From the year-on-year change of sales volume, the growth rate was the largest in 2012, reaching 225.47%, and the sales volume of that year exceeded 45000 units. The annual sales volume of the domestic corn machine market peaked in 2014, reaching 80000 units. Since 2015, the market sales volume has declined for three consecutive years. Last year, the annual sales volume returned to the range of 40000 units, becoming the lowest sales volume for six consecutive years since 2012

according to the analysis of the operation law of market changes, it is normal for sales to rise and fall. Judging from the current market situation, the corn harvester market may have bottomed out, and the probability of market sales rebound this year is very high

first of all, the improvement of the mechanization of corn harvest and the renewal of old machines have stimulated market demand, and there is a market where there is demand

as one of the three major grain crops in China, after the planting structure has been adjusted for two consecutive years, the planting area of corn is still the largest. According to the "statistical bulletin of the people's Republic of China on national economic and social development 2017"), the annual grain planting area in 2017 was 112.22 million hectares, including 23.99 million hectares of wheat; The rice planting area is 30.18 million hectares; Corn planting area is 35.45 million hectares. It is not difficult to see by comparison that the planting area of corn in 2017 was more than 5 million hectares more than that of rice, and more than 11 million hectares more than that of wheat. Although the statistics of this year have not been released yet, according to the report on the supply and demand situation of China's agricultural products in May released by the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas, the sown area of China's corn will be reduced to 34.95 million hectares in 2018/19, 495000 hectares less than that in 2017/18. In other words, the planting area of corn is in a gradually fine-tuning state, and it is still the crop with the largest planting area. However, in terms of the degree of mechanization, the mechanical yield of corn is low. Statistics show that in 2017, the mechanical yield of corn in China was 69%, which is not small compared with 95% of wheat and more than 87% of rice, which also provides growth space for the market sales of corn machines. At the same time, from the perspective of the cycle dimension of industrial maturity, the maturity period of domestic corn harvester product quality is the last five years. During the period of high-speed growth, many corn harvester brands are not mature enough. Now they have entered the period of frequent failures or scrapping. In many regions, there have been the phenomenon of old machines working and inorganic availability. Therefore, the renewal of old machines will become an important factor in driving market sales

secondly, from the perspective of grain prices and land input and output, corn is still the preferred crop in the main production areas

according to the national implementation plan on expanding the production of biofuel ethanol and promoting the use of ethanol gasoline for vehicles issued in September 2017, by 2020, the use of ethanol gasoline for vehicles will be promoted nationwide, basically achieving full coverage. According to the prediction of relevant departments, by 2020, the total consumption of gasoline such as domestic transportation is expected to reach 130 million tons. If calculated at the 10% addition ratio, 13 million tons of fuel ethanol will be consumed, It is conservatively estimated that an additional 70million tons of corn can be consumed by promoting the use of biofuel ethanol in, providing a powerful digestion path for corn deep processing, which has promoted the steady operation of corn prices this year. From the perspective of farmers' land input and output, the input and output of corn planting are dominant. 3 especially in the northeast and Inner Mongolia, the income of corn planting is significantly higher than that of soybeans. At the same time, the state has proposed the guiding policy of reducing rice planting area this year, and corn planting is still the first choice in many regions. With corn planting, there will be a "place to use" for corn harvesting machinery, and there will be a basis for improving market sales. According to the current situation, the trend is good

again, corn silage is the main direction of "grain to feed", and the policy driving force is still not small

it can be seen from the list of the maximum subsidy amount of the central financial funds of national general agricultural machinery in (publicity draft), that the emphasis of the state's subsidy support for corn machinery has been adjusted, but the overall support tone remains the same. If the acetylene flame turns into a lasting blue when baking a part of the screw, at the same time, The Department of Agricultural Mechanization Management pointed out in the key points of work in 2018: "Focus on the nine advantageous areas of crops, launch a series of ground gas and replicable whole process mechanized overall solutions for new business entities, and promote the organic integration of the whole process mechanized and efficient production mode and appropriate scale operation. For the key weak links such as direct corn grain harvest, double crop rice machine type, sugarcane machine sowing and machine harvesting, and cotton machine harvesting, carefully implement experimental demonstration projects and create a number of whole process mechanized core demonstration bases." As we all know, since 2015, the country has begun to promote the adjustment of crop planting structure of "replacing grain with forage" and vigorously develop the high-quality forage industry based on Silage Corn in accordance with the principles of supporting forage and livestock and balancing production and marketing. According to relevant statistics, in 2017, the harvest of high-quality forage was more than 30million tons. According to the requirements of the national plan for the adjustment of planting structure, the forage area will grow to 95million mu by 2020, Among them, the area of silage corn should reach more than 25million mu, basically realizing the full coverage of silage corn in dairy farms. It can be judged that under the promotion of multiple factors such as subsidy orientation, maturity of longitudinal axial-flow models and improvement of drying rate, direct grain harvester and corn silage machinery will become the hot spots of sales this year. At the same time, the traditional ear plucking and peeling models will further appear in the market segmentation

based on the above factors, new material enterprises, domestic and foreign universities, scientific research institutions and other upstream R & D institutions and downstream space cotton are encouraged to belong to category 1 of non-woven fabrics. Therefore, using the prediction of enterprises, it is estimated that the domestic corn machine market sales this year will be 4 In the range of 50000 units, or to achieve% growth, the grain harvest products have really entered the stage of rapid development because of the maturity of longitudinal axial flow products. Corn silage models are still the focus of attention, with good growth

at present, the adjustment of traditional industries and weakening are the norm

in the long run, the demand is still there, and product upgrading is imperative

with the in-depth promotion of the "supply side" structural reform, traditional industries have entered a critical period of "transformation of old and new kinetic energy". This period is the stage where two sides of things coexist and progress together. Contradictions, conflicts and integration will occur from time to time. On the one hand, new kinetic energy should be generated in continuous exploration, innovation and breakthrough, and gradually grow and become the backbone of industry development; On the other hand, before the new kinetic energy is mature, the old kinetic energy must realize its own systematic upgrading. The two are staggered, complementary and synchronous development, and neither link can be neglected

as for the agricultural machinery industry, power machinery represented by small and medium horsepower tractors, combine harvesters targeted at wheat, rice, corn, etc., and single cylinder small four-wheel and agricultural tricycles represented by low-end performance belong to the traditional categories of the agricultural machinery industry. Under the background of the rapid development of the "golden decade" since the implementation of subsidies in the domestic agricultural machinery market in 2004, the total amount of products of traditional categories has expanded rapidly, Many production capacity has been repeatedly invested, and there has been serious saturation nationwide. "Supply exceeds demand" is bound to lead to the market entering the inventory and adjustment period, and some areas have become "old kinetic energy" that needs to be upgraded. In contrast, in the field of high-end product manufacturing, such as super large tractors with more than 500 horsepower, large cotton pickers, large silage machines, high-end grain processing machinery, high-density balers, etc., the domestic market is heavily dependent on imports. The overall volume of domestic agricultural machinery manufacturing ranks first in the world, but the overall competitiveness and profit added value are not high, and many core components are still controlled by others. There is a great lack of domestic processing technology and technological breakthroughs, which should be the "new kinetic energy" just mentioned. In this context, the structural adjustment of the agricultural machinery industry has been related to the sustainable development of the industry. Since 2015, the traditional agricultural machinery industry has entered a slow development stage. According to the current situation of industrial upgrading, this process takes time to precipitate and cannot be achieved overnight. In this sense, the weakening development will become the norm of the agricultural machinery industry, and the corn harvester market cannot be spared, The continuous decline in the past three years is to accumulate strength for subsequent improvement

with a long-term perspective, the market prospect of corn harvesters is still promising. As can be seen from the national "list of the maximum subsidy amount of central financial funds for national general-purpose agricultural machinery in (publicity draft)", corn harvesters are still the key category of general-purpose agricultural machinery subsidies in the next three years. From the perspective of segmented products, the most noteworthy is that the national subsidy amount for self-propelled corn grain combine harvesters with more than five rows has reached 87400 yuan, It can be said that the intensity is unprecedented. At the same time, the subsidy amount of small computers and grain harvesters has been increased to varying degrees, the subsidy amount of mainframe computers has been fine tuned, and the subsidy of wheat type corn harvesters has been canceled. Through this adjustment, it is not difficult to see that at present, the main corn production areas such as Huang Huaihai and Northeast China tend to be saturated with ear plucking and peeling corn models, so the subsidy amount of main sales models has been appropriately reduced; In order to promote the mechanization of hilly areas, the subsidy amount is increased for small 2-row and 3-row corn machines suitable for hilly areas. It can be concluded that in the next few years, the development trend of both ends of the corn harvester is still obvious, which provides more opportunities for domestic manufacturing. Powerful large-scale enterprises make breakthroughs to high-end and large-scale products, complete the localization substitution of imported products, and achieve "new momentum", which will be a very huge market share; Professional enterprises of general scale focus on specific categories, make great efforts in the aspects of product reliability, durability, applicability and so on, make products with the highest cost performance in the market, and realize the upgrading of "old kinetic energy". These two areas have great potential

make a further bold prediction. In the coming years, the corn harvester market may run steadily and stronger. With the large-scale machinery and the improvement of operation efficiency, the annual sales volume will be There is a great possibility for 50000 units to operate in the range, and domestic brands will make a qualitative leap in comprehensive performance

to study and judge the market trend, it is ultimately a logical causal inference of some arguments. No matter what the market trend is, we should make products and improve them in a down-to-earth manner

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